Housing Market 2026: A Quiet Rebound Is Brewing
After two years of stalled sales, scarce inventory, and mortgage rates that scared off both buyers and sellers, analysts now believe the housing market could stage a real comeback in 2026 — driven by stabilizing mortgage rates, better inventory, and pent-up demand.
HousingWire’s latest outlook suggests existing home sales could finally increase in 2026 after years of stagnation, assuming mortgage rates hover near the 6% range and spreads over the 10-year Treasury continue to normalize. That’s critical, because spreads have been the hidden villain behind affordability for nearly three years.
More inventory doesn’t just help first-time buyers — it also frees up move-up buyers, downsizers, investors, and retirees who delayed listing during the rate shock.
Congress Flirts With Eliminating Capital Gains Tax on Home Sales
On top of market normalization, a new policy idea just entered the chat:
A recently introduced bill would eliminate federal capital gains tax on primary home sales after two years of ownership. Today, Americans can exclude up to $250K ($500K for married couples) in gains, but anything above that is taxed.
If this passes — even in a modified form — it could:
✔ unlock inventory from aging or downsizing owners
✔ encourage more voluntary listings at the higher end
✔ ease competitive pressure on first-time and investor segments
✔ reshape affordability dynamics across key metros
Inventory changes are the single biggest lever for affordability. Rates matter, but supply is destiny.
Macro Risks: Europe’s $8 Trillion ‘Sell America’ Card + Tariff Shockwaves
Outside the housing bubble, global markets are flashing volatility signs.
European countries collectively hold ~$8 trillion in U.S. financial assets — and analysis suggests they could theoretically weaponize that position if U.S. tariff threats escalate.
That scenario jumped from “theoretical” to “plausible” after Trump issued warnings of higher tariffs on imports from eight European nations, sending U.S. futures sliding and investors into a brief risk-off posture.
For mortgage borrowers, the connection might sound distant — but geopolitics has been quietly steering rates for two years. Tariffs → inflation → Fed policy → Treasury yields → mortgage rates. It all cascades.
In short:
✔ tariffs are rate-bearish (inflation-sticky)
✔ global uncertainty is rate-bullish (flight to safety)
Housing sits right in the crossfire.
What Borrowers Should Pay Attention To Right Now
If you’re watching the market for a home purchase or refinance, the three biggest 2026 levers are shaping up to be:
- Mortgage Rate Stability: Flat rates unlock transactions. Volatile rates paralyze everyone.
- Inventory & Tax Policy: Killing capital gains taxes on homes would be a seismic inventory unlock.
- Global Trade & Tariff Conflicts: Rates may rise or fall based on macro shocks investors don’t price into housing headlines.
This is why the housing market often moves before the average borrower even notices conditions have changed.
How Mbanc Fits Into This Housing Cycle (Non-QM Buyers Take Note)
Here’s the twist:
The borrowers most likely to be active in the early stages of a 2026 rebound are non-traditional income borrowers, especially:
✔ self-employed
✔ business owners
✔ investors
✔ foreign nationals
✔ crypto-wealth or asset-rich clients
Traditional banks still struggle with these profiles because they underwrite tax returns, not financial reality.
That’s where Mbanc (Mortgage Bank of California) performs exceptionally well.
Mbanc can qualify borrowers using:
✔ bank statements
✔ cash-flow analysis
✔ asset-based structures
✔ DSCR
✔ foreign national programs
✔ non-QM alternatives the big banks avoid
If inventory opens up and rates stabilize, non-QM becomes one of the highest-leverage tools for capturing opportunity — especially for buyers who sat out 2023-2025 because the financing environment didn’t match their financial model.
Ready to Prepare for Opportunity?
If you want to position yourself for the 2026 market instead of reacting to it:
📞 Call a Mbanc loan officer
or
🖥 Apply online in minutes
Smart borrowers start planning before the window opens — that’s how you beat the market, not follow it.
Sources:
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/existing-home-sales-2026-outlook/
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/capital-gains-tax-home-sales/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-wield-8-trillion-sell-174459640.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-futures-sink-trump-warns-064219161.html